EXPERT PERSPECTIVE/OPINION -- “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” The powerful statement by then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan delivered on June 12, 1987, in West Berlin was a clear demand by the leader of the free world directed at the leader of the Soviet Union. A year and a half later, the Berlin Wall fell, setting off a chain of events that ultimately resulted in German reunification, the end of the Warsaw Treaty Organization and the liberation of eastern Europe.
Shortly thereafter, the Soviet Union collapsed. Reagan’s demand had proven to the world the power of the West and the determination of its leader to bring an end to the evil political system represented by the Soviet Union—the 20th Century’s most imperialistic power.
The world of the 21st Century is now faced with a challenge represented by another imperialist and dictator, Vladimir Putin, the leader of the Russian Federation, who in February 2022, launched an invasion of Ukraine and plunged Europe into its largest conflict since the end of the Second World War in 1945.
At the time Reagan delivered his speech, there were already indications that the Soviet system was weakening. The Soviet economy was under strain from the costs of defense spending among other challenges. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, had begun a cautious program of trying to reform the socialist economy, recognizing that the Soviet-style command economy could not compete with the capitalist economies of the Free World.
The Chernobyl nuclear disaster had occurred 14 months earlier, shaking confidence in Soviet science and crisis management capabilities. There were increasing efforts by citizens of Soviet satellite countries to flee those countries and move West. The Soviet system was wobbling and it’s likely that Reagan’s dramatic remarks in Berlin increased the pace of the weakening of the Soviet system.
Similarly, the argument can be made that Mr. Putin’s system may now be wobbling.
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Last weekend’s stunningly successful drone attacks by Ukrainian forces against Russia’s strategic bomber bases located deep in the territory of the Russian Federation are an important sign of weakness in the Russian system and Putin’s incompetence in managing the invasion of Ukraine has long been evident.
Examples abound, starting with the bad Russian intelligence that Ukraine was weak that marked the initial weeks of the war, to the reliance by Russia on tactics reminiscent of the bloodiest battles in the First World War, to the astonishing advance toward Moscow by Prigozhin’s rebellious Wagner militia forces, to Ukraine’s Kursk invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation, to the ability of Ukrainian naval forces to drive the Russian Black Sea fleet out of the eastern Black Sea, and now the successful attack by Ukraine on an important element in Russia’s nuclear arsenal — an attack that was followed almost immediately by one on the heavily defended bridge over the Kerch Strait.
And today, after three years of war, Ukraine has the ability to infiltrate special forces and position attack drones undetected deep in Russian territory and detonate charges placed against the pylons of a strategically important bridge.
This is equal parts brilliant operational planning and execution by Ukraine and incompetence by the Russian military and Security Services for which there needs to be an accounting.
Vladimir Putin is an autocrat and autocracies are brittle. Eventually their leaders face a reckoning, and it usually comes from within. This war is Putin’s war. He started it for a couple of reasons. One was to fulfill his ambition to rebuild parts of the claimed territory of Imperial Russia which in his mind, includes Ukraine.
Another likely reason Putin started the war is to try and divert the attention of the Russian population from the massive corruption his regime represents.
Some estimates of Putin’s wealth now make him the richest man on the planet. The acolytes, siloviki and oligarchs that make up his regime have similarly enriched themselves — all at the expense of the Russian people. There is clearly nothing like using the propaganda power of state-controlled media to present the false narrative of a threat to Russia from external powers—in this case NATO—and to paint a picture of a “Nazi” regime ruling neighboring Ukraine and persecuting its ethnic Russian population. This is the propaganda that Putin used to justify his unjustifiable war. It—and he—lack both credibility and staying power. There will be a reckoning and that reckoning can be advanced through the strength and vision of Western leaders.
Ukraine’s successful drone attacks exposed the clearly flawed operating assumption by President Trump that Ukraine is losing the war. They are not.
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In some ways, Ukraine has already won. Despite the slow-rolling of support for Ukraine under the Biden Administration and the badgering and bullying by Trump of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian resolve to resist remains unshaken and their ability to inflict pain on Putin’s Russia continues to be convincingly demonstrated.
According to any number of sources, Russia is approaching a million casualties (forces killed, wounded, captured, or missing) since the start of the war. The loss in military materiel is equally devastating and Russia’s economy—even at full wartime mobilization—cannot build replacement equipment fast enough and must rely on aid from allies like Iran, North Korea, and China. Despite the seeming Russian advantage in the horrible mathematics of war, Ukrainian skill, daring and competence may, in the end, overcome Russia’s advantage in both size and population.
Russia’s response to the Ukrainian strike still remains to be seen, but the impact of the strike will certainly reverberate in the halls of power in the Kremlin and may present a threat to Putin’s regime.
This is why it is critical for the U.S. and the West to provide even more vocal and material support for Ukraine. President Trump and the Republican majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate should immediately advance the sanctions legislation currently under consideration and encourage Europe to expand their sanctions on Russian energy production and revenues. Russia’s economy is already reeling, but revenues from energy keep it from collapsing.
Ukraine’s attacks may also present a unique opportunity for President Trump to get on the right side of history and, in a statement as bold as President Reagan’s, call on Putin to end the war.
Let there be no mistake: this is Putin’s war and only he has the power to end it. Ukraine will not surrender or accept a bad truce or peace deal, nor should they. Ukraine will continue to fight, and one should not be surprised if Ukraine has more ability to take the war to the territory of the Russian Federation as they have demonstrated any number of times since February of 2022.
President Trump’s approach to Putin and the war he started has been flawed from the beginning. He must now realize that Putin is dragging him along with his continued talk of negotiations which is nothing more than “peace theater.” Mr. Putin does not want peace except on terms that would represent complete capitulation by Ukraine and the West.
Mr. Trump should take a lesson from Ukraine and use the current situation to demonstrate firmly to both Putin and the world that Putin’s aggression will not stand, and the United States and the West will stay united and support Ukraine. Mr. Trump has the opportunity to correct the record and get on the right side of history. It could happen in a speech in which he demands: “Mr. Putin, End this War!” Trump could add, “Before it is too late.”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
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